Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 02 2020 | 4095 | 30734 | 138 | 21 | 1154 | 1421 |
| November 03 2020 | 4225 | 31211 | 145 | 25 | 1168 | 1489 |
| November 04 2020 | 4316 | 31442 | 148 | 28 | 1174 | 1533 |
| November 05 2020 | 4556 | 31717 | 151 | 28 | 1236 | 1706 |
| November 06 2020 | 4716 | 32083 | 151 | 30 | 1274 | 1775 |
| November 07 2020 | 4897 | 32325 | 157 | 31 | 1366 | 1840 |
| November 08 2020 | 5036 | 32453 | 159 | 31 | 1380 | 1894 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 5 | 6.3 | 3.8% | 52 | 0.45% | 78 | 0.68% |
| 10-19 | 21 | 19.6 | 13.3% | 184 | 1.35% | 258 | 1.9% |
| 20-29 | 36 | 31.1 | 20.7% | 285 | 1.36% | 391 | 1.87% |
| 30-39 | 20 | 28.1 | 17.5% | 241 | 1.77% | 325 | 2.39% |
| 40-49 | 21 | 20.6 | 12.5% | 173 | 1.65% | 232 | 2.22% |
| 50-59 | 18 | 19.9 | 13.3% | 184 | 1.47% | 260 | 2.07% |
| 60-69 | 14 | 12.4 | 8.6% | 118 | 1.03% | 168 | 1.46% |
| 70+ | 4 | 15.7 | 10.4% | 143 | 1.37% | 182 | 1.74% |
| All ages | 139 | 153.7 | 100% | 1380 | 1.32% | 1894 | 1.81% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 02 2020 | 2033 | 19273 | 70 | 24 | 715 | 909 |
| November 03 2020 | 2128 | 19511 | 73 | 24 | 731 | 998 |
| November 04 2020 | 2260 | 19647 | 76 | 24 | 863 | 1045 |
| November 05 2020 | 2434 | 19779 | 79 | 26 | 901 | 1155 |
| November 06 2020 | 2604 | 19974 | 82 | 26 | 1023 | 1286 |
| November 07 2020 | 2713 | 20102 | 83 | 29 | 1028 | 1316 |
| November 08 2020 | 2753 | 20170 | 84 | 29 | 964 | 1356 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 2.9 | 2.8% | 27 | 0.35% | 40 | 0.52% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 6.7 | 7.4% | 71 | 0.84% | 101 | 1.2% |
| 20-29 | 7 | 16.7 | 14.6% | 141 | 1.98% | 182 | 2.56% |
| 30-39 | 5 | 23.1 | 19.1% | 184 | 2.19% | 250 | 2.97% |
| 40-49 | 8 | 22.3 | 19.1% | 184 | 2.37% | 250 | 3.22% |
| 50-59 | 6 | 19.4 | 17.2% | 166 | 1.71% | 239 | 2.46% |
| 60-69 | 7 | 14.1 | 12.2% | 118 | 1.4% | 182 | 2.17% |
| 70+ | 2 | 8.3 | 7.6% | 73 | 1.03% | 112 | 1.57% |
| All ages | 40 | 113.6 | 100% | 964 | 1.49% | 1356 | 2.1% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 02 2020 | 1388 | 12569 | 61 | 7 | 457 | 585 |
| November 03 2020 | 1424 | 12656 | 63 | 8 | 454 | 597 |
| November 04 2020 | 1494 | 12789 | 64 | 8 | 478 | 636 |
| November 05 2020 | 1586 | 12839 | 65 | 8 | 524 | 691 |
| November 06 2020 | 1685 | 13006 | 67 | 11 | 592 | 754 |
| November 07 2020 | 1797 | 13074 | 70 | 11 | 665 | 827 |
| November 08 2020 | 1861 | 13159 | 70 | 11 | 683 | 845 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 3.4 | 4.2% | 29 | 0.53% | 33 | 0.61% |
| 10-19 | 6 | 8.9 | 10.8% | 74 | 1.36% | 92 | 1.69% |
| 20-29 | 14 | 11.7 | 14.2% | 97 | 2.14% | 123 | 2.72% |
| 30-39 | 9 | 11.3 | 15.4% | 105 | 1.93% | 126 | 2.32% |
| 40-49 | 12 | 12.6 | 16% | 109 | 2.19% | 132 | 2.65% |
| 50-59 | 8 | 12.0 | 15.7% | 107 | 1.58% | 130 | 1.92% |
| 60-69 | 7 | 9.4 | 12.4% | 85 | 1.34% | 106 | 1.67% |
| 70+ | 5 | 8.0 | 11.3% | 77 | 1.22% | 107 | 1.69% |
| All ages | 64 | 77.3 | 100% | 683 | 1.51% | 845 | 1.87% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 02 2020 | 4635 | 33228 | 93 | 23 | 651 | 818 |
| November 03 2020 | 4740 | 33696 | 96 | 23 | 715 | 872 |
| November 04 2020 | 4910 | 34026 | 99 | 23 | 827 | 1003 |
| November 05 2020 | 5035 | 34278 | 101 | 26 | 932 | 1074 |
| November 06 2020 | 5174 | 34708 | 101 | 26 | 987 | 1190 |
| November 07 2020 | 5391 | 34865 | 103 | 26 | 1135 | 1366 |
| November 08 2020 | 5469 | 35062 | 103 | 26 | 1103 | 1386 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 2.9 | 1.9% | 21 | 0.18% | 32 | 0.27% |
| 10-19 | 5 | 13.6 | 10.7% | 118 | 0.71% | 162 | 0.98% |
| 20-29 | 15 | 25.9 | 21.1% | 233 | 1.09% | 303 | 1.42% |
| 30-39 | 14 | 17.0 | 14.1% | 155 | 1.14% | 187 | 1.38% |
| 40-49 | 15 | 17.6 | 15.1% | 167 | 1.23% | 207 | 1.52% |
| 50-59 | 15 | 21.3 | 17% | 187 | 1.32% | 229 | 1.61% |
| 60-69 | 9 | 15.0 | 11.9% | 131 | 0.92% | 157 | 1.11% |
| 70+ | 3 | 9.9 | 8.3% | 91 | 0.7% | 109 | 0.84% |
| All ages | 78 | 123.0 | 100% | 1103 | 0.93% | 1386 | 1.17% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 02 2020 | 16207 | 243534 | 541 | 49 | 2652 | 3691 |
| November 03 2020 | 16768 | 244983 | 555 | 49 | 2937 | 3947 |
| November 04 2020 | 16963 | 246093 | 564 | 51 | 2837 | 3842 |
| November 05 2020 | 17295 | 246986 | 572 | 50 | 2990 | 3980 |
| November 06 2020 | 17807 | 248063 | 590 | 53 | 3247 | 4252 |
| November 07 2020 | 18274 | 249427 | 596 | 55 | 3345 | 4443 |
| November 08 2020 | 18523 | 250330 | 602 | 55 | 3370 | 4397 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 11 | 21.0 | 6% | 201 | 0.33% | 245 | 0.41% |
| 10-19 | 49 | 56.1 | 15.3% | 516 | 0.73% | 658 | 0.93% |
| 20-29 | 63 | 84.7 | 24% | 809 | 0.78% | 1055 | 1.02% |
| 30-39 | 41 | 57.1 | 15.8% | 534 | 0.7% | 705 | 0.92% |
| 40-49 | 31 | 50.6 | 13.7% | 463 | 0.71% | 600 | 0.91% |
| 50-59 | 22 | 37.7 | 11% | 372 | 0.57% | 520 | 0.79% |
| 60-69 | 14 | 24.6 | 7% | 237 | 0.43% | 306 | 0.56% |
| 70+ | 18 | 27.0 | 7.1% | 238 | 0.48% | 308 | 0.63% |
| All ages | 249 | 358.9 | 100% | 3370 | 0.62% | 4397 | 0.8% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 02 2020 | 232296 | 1846618 | 11597 | 2050 | 41818 | 58405 |
| November 03 2020 | 238067 | 1861962 | 11844 | 2102 | 43527 | 59585 |
| November 04 2020 | 244002 | 1872295 | 12087 | 2156 | 45836 | 61315 |
| November 05 2020 | 249924 | 1881813 | 12310 | 2194 | 48875 | 63824 |
| November 06 2020 | 256065 | 1896457 | 12554 | 2256 | 49754 | 65587 |
| November 07 2020 | 263130 | 1908320 | 12727 | 2301 | 53004 | 68590 |
| November 08 2020 | 267410 | 1916801 | 12839 | 2312 | 52414 | 69244 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 192 | 212.4 | 3.8% | 1976 | 0.31% | 2627 | 0.41% |
| 10-19 | 611 | 598.1 | 10.8% | 5680 | 0.75% | 7401 | 0.98% |
| 20-29 | 809 | 990.9 | 17.7% | 9290 | 1.23% | 12049 | 1.59% |
| 30-39 | 598 | 880.9 | 15.9% | 8328 | 1.1% | 11017 | 1.46% |
| 40-49 | 594 | 831.1 | 15% | 7849 | 1.12% | 10322 | 1.48% |
| 50-59 | 602 | 859.4 | 15.9% | 8335 | 1.02% | 11069 | 1.36% |
| 60-69 | 483 | 600.0 | 11.2% | 5882 | 0.78% | 7878 | 1.04% |
| 70+ | 391 | 533.9 | 9.7% | 5075 | 0.79% | 6881 | 1.07% |
| All ages | 4280 | 5506.7 | 100% | 52414 | 0.9% | 69244 | 1.19% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 181 | 189.7 | 186.8 | 153.7 | 106.9 | 37.3% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 209.7 | 113.6 | 67.1 | 46% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 186.8 | 77.3 | 39.1 | 47.2% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 117.2 | 97.9 | 142.4 | 123 | 49.9 | 30.9% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80.4 | 92.6 | 101.6 | 358.9 | 258.3 | 24.9% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 118.9 | 97.8 | 159.2 | 5506.7 | 3919.9 | 33.8% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 10.1 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.43 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-11-29 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 2287"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges